Regime - Switching Models
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چکیده
منابع مشابه
Forecasting Crude Oil prices Volatility and Value at Risk: Single and Switching Regime GARCH Models
Forecasting crude oil price volatility is an important issues in risk management. The historical course of oil price volatility indicates the existence of a cluster pattern. Therefore, GARCH models are used to model and more accurately predict oil price fluctuations. The purpose of this study is to identify the best GARCH model with the best performance in different time horizons. To achieve th...
متن کاملEstimating Stock Price in Energy Market Including Oil, Gas, and Coal: The Comparison of Linear and Non-Linear Two-State Markov Regime Switching Models
A common method to study the dynamic behavior of macroeconomic variables is using linear time series models; however, they are unable to explain nonlinear behavior of the series. Given the dependency between stock market and derivatives, the behavior of the underlying asset price can be modeled using Markov switching process properties and the economic regime significance. In this paper, a two-...
متن کاملAsymmetric Effects of Government Spending on Economic Growth Over the Business Cycle: Application of Markov Switching Models
This paper is investigated four subject with uses iranian economic data and using the Markov-Switching model during the period (1369: 3-1393: 4), So that: (a) were Examined impact of the positive and negative Fiscal shocks on Iran economic growth ( B) the Hypothesis impact of negative shocks is greater than a positive shock was tested. (C) were tested the impact of government expenditure (f...
متن کاملFads Models with Markov Switching Hetroskedasticity: decomposing Tehran Stock Exchange return into Permanent and Transitory Components
Stochastic behavior of stock returns is very important for investors and policy makers in the stock market. In this paper, the stochastic behavior of the return index of Tehran Stock Exchange (TEDPIX) is examined using unobserved component Markov switching model (UC-MS) for the 3/27/2010 until 8/3/2015 period. In this model, stock returns are decomposed into two components; a permanent componen...
متن کاملMonetary Fundamental-Based Exchange Rate Model in Iran: Applying a MS-TVTP Approach
T he main purpose of this article is to analyze exchange rate behavior based on monetary fundamentals in the context of Iranian economy over the period 1990:2 to 2014:3. To do so, two monetary exchange rate models is investigated, the first by regarding interest rate differential as a monetary variable, and the second one regardless of interest rate differential as a monetary variabl...
متن کاملA new method for fuzzification of nested dummy variables by fuzzy clustering membership functions and its application in financial economy
In this study, the aim is to propose a new method for fuzzification of nested dummy variables. The fuzzification idea of dummy variables has been acquired from non-linear part of regime switching models in econometrics. In these models, the concept of transfer functions is like the notion of fuzzy membership functions, but no principle or linguistic sentence have been used for inputs. Consequen...
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تاریخ انتشار 2005